The most dangerous parts of managing risk are the risks you don’t expect. Looking back at my old four-box analysis, there are really two types of unexpected risks, the risk that you know that you don’t know and the risk that you don’t know that you don’t know. In the first case you know there is an unexpected risk. In the second, you missed that there was an even a risk.
The second case has been labeled the Black Swan. Those type of risks are well written about by Taleb.
While staying up late and watching some Monty Python, I came to the conclusion that the first case is the “Spanish Inquisition.” You know the Spanish Inquisition is out there roaming the countryside. You just don’t now when or where they will appear.
You also don’t know the danger. Their two weapons are fear and surprise…and ruthless efficiency.
